Recently, former Republican Presidential Nominee, Mitt Romney, called the national media together in Salt Lake City to address the state of the GOP nominating process. In that address, he condemned the candidacy of Donald Trump as being a rouse and a con job. He stated that such a nominee would destroy the Republican chances of winning the general election, and if by chance Trump did win, it would have devastating consequences for the party and the nation.
Romney put forth a strategy to defeat Trump by asking other campaigns to focus on only the states where they are the strongest alternative candidacy to that of Trump. He said "Ohioans should vote for Kasich and Floridians should vote for Rubio," and in other states the GOP voters should apply a similar logic. He said that even if it doesn't result in another candidate attaining an outright nomination, at least it would open the door to other options through a "brokered" convention.
This message has glaring problems:
- The messenger is a hypocrite. Romney conspired to violate the October 1st 2011 "hard deadline" for establishing the RNC nominating process. Until the week of the 2012 convention, Ron Paul had attained the required 5 state wins needed to have his name placed in nomination. But the Convention Rules committee was stacked with Romney operatives who made a 'last minute' rule change just days prior to the nomination night. They decided to raise the threshold to 8 states, because Ron Paul had won 7 state contests. It is one of the ugliest demonstrations of "smoke-filled room" politics. And it set a requirement which will likely backfire on an "establishment" candidate, this year.
- The message assumes that all of the "anti Trump" factions are monolithic. They are not. The Ted Cruz campaign is as distrustful of Romney's ways as they are of Trump's ways. Ted Cruz is within striking range of overtaking Trump in the delegate race. Had South Carolina not been allowed to to winner-take-all AND let non-party members vote in a Republican primary, this would be a completely different narrative.
- Cruz has earned the right to take on Trump in a head-to-head contest in exactly the same way that the 2008 Romney campaign insisted that Huckabee & Paul had a duty to step aside and let Romney have a one-on-one shot at McCain for the nomination.
The tactic of forcing a contested convention may happen. But if it goes to that scenario, the grassroots supporters of Ted Cruz will not align with any establishment plot. In fact, they will wisely be leary of any initiative which smells of an establishment plot to undermine an angry conservative electorate movement.
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